Advanced Executive Education Series
Building a Demand-Driven Supply Chain through
Integrated Business Management
– from Execution to Optimisation
From Basic Demand and Supply Balancing to Strategic Management Excellence Practical and comprehensive series of workshops for management and practitioners – from data collection, segmentation and presentation to sophisticated forecasting techniques that will improve your bottom line and increase your competitive position in the market. It is highly recommended to take all three workshops to gain complete understanding of demand planning process, roles and responsibilities along with understanding of how the demand planning function can provide high value to the business planning especially in times that are highly unpredictable, unstable and challenging. Those participants who successfully complete all three forecasting workshops will receive a certificate of accomplishment from Jaguar-APS.
- Registration
- Why should you attend?
- How will you benefit?
- The Course
- How this program can help in tough times like this?
- Who should attend?
- Program content
- Workshop 1 – Statistical Forecasting Techniques, Data Mining and Treatment
- Workshop 2 – Advanced Statistical Forecasting Techniques
- Workshop 3 – Forecast Error Reporting and Demand Planning Process and Its Integration in S&OP / IBP Process
- Client’s Testimonials
Registration
Please register here. The number of seats is limited to ensure the quality of the workshop.
- Registration to any single workshop: 11.250,- CZK (500,- USD) per person
- Registration to any combination of 2 workshops: 18.000,- CZK (800,- USD) per person
- Registration to full series of 3 workshops: 27.000,- CZK (1.200,- USD) per person
- Participants of all three workshops will receive a certificate of training and successful completion
| IMPORTANT: To translate and expedite learning during our VIRTUAL/ONLINE workshops, participants are HIGHLY ENCOURAGED to secure TWO MONITORS (laptop and one external). DATA ANALYSIS MS Excel Add-In MUST BE ACTIVATED. |
Why should you attend?
- Designed by professionals with combined 50+ years of practical business forecasting / demand planning experience.
- Layered hands-on Excel exercises that foster stronger understanding and retention of materials covered during the workshop.
- Practical understanding of leading forecasting software and systems including SAP APO, MANUGISTICS, i2, ForecastPRO and others to facilitate the discussion pertaining to software selection / use and program content applicability to individual systems.
- 60 days post–workshop support via phone/email on workshop covered materials / topics
- Web forum for workshop participants to enable them to consult with their peers and/or escalate the questions directly to Jaguar-APS.
- All workshop materials available for downloads from Jaguar-APS web forum, including library of reference materials and previous course materials.
How will you benefit?
- Establish a process for effective forecasting.
- Select the forecasting and analytical techniques most appropriate for any given forecasting problem.
- Learn how to analyse historical data fast and accurately to improve statistical forecast quality and accuracy.
- Learn how to analyse your data as a prerequisite to successful implementation of statistical forecasting software, system.
- Understand how to evaluate performance of a statistical model.
- Learn how to interpret ‘residuals’ and model diagnostics to support effective model-building effort.
- Benefit from understanding techniques of combining various forecasts to improve forecast accuracy and stability.
- Gain solid understanding of data and the processes generating data and forecasts, thus increasing the ability to manage your staff’s time required to produce more accurate forecasts and decreasing dependence on software logic.
- Understand the exception driven forecast process and how to implement it in your organization.
- Learn the ways to incorporate market data into statistical forecasting.
- Explore various techniques used to transform data to improve the quality of statistical forecast.
- Understand various trends and how they impact your forecasts.
The course
The series of workshops are specifically designed to address key issues in the minds of those with management and executive responsibilities and those who work alongside them. The objective of these three mini VIRTUAL workshops is to provide business professionals with a set of data and forecasting procedures and to demonstrate with illustrative examples how such procedures are used in data preparation and model building and forecasting. The course focuses on conceptual framework of models, and thus providing a clear vision of what each model represents, it’s underlying assumptions and what its model statistics imply. Such understanding helps forecasters and business professionals not only in evaluating models but also in selecting the right one for preparing forecasts. The limitations of each of the models are pointed out throughout the course as well. The main goal is to show the application of models in forecasting and the importance of quality of the data used to generate the forecasts. The most important thing for practicing forecasters and their management is to understand the concept, how a model works, how to evaluate it, and how to go about to improve upon it. The requirements of mathematics are kept to a minimum, as most of the forecasting software systems do this on their own. There are many software packages in the market which have a built-in expert system that automatically selects the ‘best’ model (aka ‘best fit’) and then provides the resulting forecasts. However, with the expert system comes the danger of ‘black box’ forecasting. The model selected by software may or may not be the best one. To avoid black box model building, it is important for forecasters to understand what goes behind each model, as well as how and why a given model is chosen. On this account, we will discuss in detail what goes behind each model. We will use real data examples throughout the course to give the live experience from variety of industry sectors. Our goal is to discuss those topics, which have a real application in business and are easy to apply. This course provides a combination of best practices in data management, segmentation and cleansing approaches required for sound statistical forecasting and forecast presentation … blending years of experience as first-line practitioners and managers with years of management consulting practice as well. A special segment on Integration of demand planning into the S&OP, IBP process along with the Impact of COVID.19 on forecasting and business planning has been added to the third workshop. We will also discuss the best practice ways of communicating the forecast to the individual S&OP, IBP process stakeholders. It is highly recommended to take all three mini workshops to gain a solid understanding on how you can reap the benefits of sound business forecasting and its integration with the real world.
How this program can help companies in tough times like this?
In the face of fast-paced globalization of economies and increasingly intensified competition, rarely a day goes by without an announcement of a new product launch, an existing one discontinued or modified, a set of new features added to make products more effective, convenient and innovative. At the same time, when customers are demanding faster delivery and quicker service, organizations often lack the resources and the expertise in order to effectively manage a leaner supply chain required to meet these challenges. As the economic uncertainties unfold many executives with supply chain and logistics responsibilities are either working in “survival mode” or moving forward and beginning to make their supply chains more responsive, flexible, and efficient. Making improvements in Demand Management is one of the most critical factors to be able to attain a lean Supply Chain, since a clear correlation exists between High Forecast Error and Missing Market Share, Lost Sales, Dissatisfied Customers, Obsolescence or Wasted Expenditures. Industry leaders and decision makers need to re-examine the way businesses think about the future. Leadership in Demand Chain Management results in increased customer satisfaction, increased revenue, and increased profit levels on the bottom line. This sets your company apart from the competition. This workshop also makes specific recommendations for those striving to move up the demand forecasting maturity curve by providing you with new tools that speed up the validation of your data used for forecasting, increasing effectiveness of use of the software you have invested in and significantly increasing productivity of your forecasting staff.
Who should attend?
CEOs, COOs, EDs, Directors, SVPs, VPs, General Managers, Senior Managers of:
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Note: The detailed content of the workshop may be adjusted without prior notice to better reflect singed-up participants’ needs.
Program Content
Date: 22nd Apr, 2021
Workshop 1: STATISTICAL FORECASTING TECHNIQUES, DATA MINING AND TREATMENT
Module 1: Gathering high quality data for development of improved forecasting in demand-driven supply chain
- Data segmentation for forecastability; time series forecasting using MS Excel
- Understanding your data: Data patterns – level, trend, seasonality, noise, events, variability
Group Exercise 1 – Demand Curve Analysis – Hands-on – Laptop required
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Module 2: Improving Forecasting Accuracy Through Applying The Most Appropriate Quantitative Techniques
- Time series forecasting methods
- Inherent Assumptions
- When Time Series Work and When They Do not
Group Exercise 2 – Exponential Smoothing and Averages – Hands-on – Laptop required We will explore simple forecasting models by building them in MS Excel. These models are common to all forecasting systems in the market. Many forecasters create higher forecast error by simply not understanding the impact of changing the models or their statistical parameters. By building these models in excel, we will solidify your knowledge of these critical baseline forecasting concepts.
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Module 3: Addressing issues with data
- Bullwhip effect
- Demand variability
Registration
Please register here. The number of seats is limited to ensure the quality of the workshop.
Date: 27th Apr, 2021
Workshop 2: ADVANCED STATISTICAL FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
ADVANCED FORECASTING METHODS, WHAT-IF ANALYSES, FORECASTING IN DIFFICULT TIMES
Module 1: Index Numbers
- Deflating data and aggregate numbers
Group Exercise 1 – Index Numbers – Hands-on – Laptop required
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Module 2: Regression Models
- When to Use Regression Models
- Simple Linear Regression and Analysis
- Key Assumptions
- Understanding the excel regression output
- Standard Error of Estimate
- Predicting Y
- Correlation
- Coefficient of determination R2
- Residuals
- Steps in regression forecasting
- Multiple Regression Model
- Diagnostics and Their Use in Multiple Regression Models
- Scatter plots
- Residual plots
- F Test for Multiple Regression Model
- t-test for Multiple Regression Models
- Coefficient of Multiple Determination
- Estimation and Prediction
Group Exercise 2 – “What-If” – Hands-on – Laptop required
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Module 3: Forecasting During Difficult Times
- Forecasting during difficult times – 9/11, SARS, 2009-10 recession, COVID-19
Group Exercise 3 – “What-If” – Hands-on – Laptop required
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- Regression Analysis – Summary
Module 4: Forecasting With Dummy Variables
- Developing promotional forecasting model that combines statistical time series forecasting with historical sales data and promotional information
- Developing seasonal model that incorporates moving holidays
- Managing the process for unplanned and abnormal demand in market and/or supply chain issues
Group Exercise 4 – Forecasting with dummy variables – Hands-on – Laptop required
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Registration
Please register here. The number of seats is limited to ensure the quality of the workshop.
Date: 29th Apr, 2021
Workshop 3: FORECAST ERROR REPORTING AND DEMAND PLANNING PROCESS AND ITS INTEGRATION IN S&OP / IBP PROCESS
Module 1: Combination of Forecasts
- Introduction to combinations of forecast methodology and why this approach outperforms any individual method
- Methods of combining
Group Exercise 1 – Combination of forecasts – Hands-on – Laptop required
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Module 2: Forecast Error
- Error analysis
- Exception driven forecasting process
- Tracking signal
- Forecast value add analysis
Group Exercise 2 – Forecast error template – Hands-on – Laptop required
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- Linking Bias, MAPE, Customer Service and Inventory KPIs (Examples)
Module 3: Integration of Demand Planning / Forecasting in S&OP and IBP Process
- Six steps to success
- Items to include on the meeting agenda
- Who should be involved?
- Business Planning Behind IBP/ES&OP
- Links to finance – one set of operational numbers
- ES&OP / IBP and Budgeting
Module 4: Impact of Pandemic and Recession on Forecast
- How can S&OP process help in times of supply chain disruptions (trade tariffs and corona virus)
- Seven Mistakes Business Leaders Make When Handling a Crisis
- Forecasting during difficult times
- Seven Actions to Drive Demand Planning During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Prepare for the “Next Normal”
Module 5: Communication and maintenance
- How does demand planning fit in the S&OP process
- Presenting the forecast
- Six steps to better forecasting process
Hand-outs:
- Forecast method selection guide
- Reference tables that speed up regression forecast decisions
Registration
Please register here. The number of seats is limited to ensure the quality of the workshop.
Client’s Testimonials
“Charles is a fully committed and highly skilled professional. During the project we handled together, his help and strong knowledge about both organizations and supply chain have been definitely key success factors. I hope working again with him, without any doubt.”
DIRECTOR OF SALES AND OPERATIONS, FUTURMASTER FRANCE
“The trainer is an indisputable expert in his field. He can manage the technical details and yet never lose sight of the broad business perspectives.”
FINANCE DIRECTOR, J&J
“The course was an eye-opener for me and had revealed new ideas and processes that I did not imagine before. I had a misconception of IBP/ES&OP as a difficult and impractical process. Through the course, I had learned that it was not a set of rules and KPI’s, but rather a means for collaboration and consensus-based decisions. We were able to set-up a practical IBP/ES&OP process within the company that allowed us to focus on common objectives, and a process that was accepted across the different functions, and with the full support of the general manager.”
SUPPLY CHAIN DIRECTORY, SANOFI – AVENTIS SINGAPORE
“The trainer has a lot of real life examples to relate to training materials – fantastic.”
Merchandising Manager, COURTS MAMMOTH SB
“The trainer helped direct the company to better forecasts, IBP/ES&OP process improvements and better systems and tools. He managed complex projects very successfully.”
SENIOR MANAGER, SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT, WARNER LAMBERT
“Good. Can relate to real issues”.
SENIOR OPERATING OFFICER, PADIBERAS NASIONAL BHD (BERNAS)
“The most valuable outcome of the workshop was that the team got believed on the importance of working in integrated environment and understand the importance of having a process such as the IBP/ES&OP where all company must working toward one objective, and having a transparency across the entire IBP/ES&OP process.“
VICE PRESIDENT – SUPPLY CHAIN, AL-NAHDI MEDICAL COMPANY, SAUDI ARABIA
“The workshop matches my expectations. I aimed to understand forecasting theory, industry environment, and gain experience on existing tools. The workshop was practical with series of hands on activities. Although I am not responsible for hands on, it provided condense environment for me to experience execution.”
SENIOR DIRECTOR SUPPLY CHAIN & QA, McDONALD’S (China) Co., Ltd.
“Charles is a very experienced speaker and the whole training has been going on smoothly and served the purpose. Clear and precise presentation. Good references examples of each topic discussed.”
MARKETING PLANNING MANAGER, CONTINENTAL SIME TYRE, MALAYSIA
“Charles has a wealth of experience of demand/supply planning & IBP/ES&OP from a range of clients. This comes across from the use of examples in industry. I left knowing considerably more about IBP/ES&OP and one-number forecasting than at the start of the day.”
PhD Candidate in Management Science, Lancaster Research Centre for Forecasting, Department of Management Science, United Kingdom
“The most valuable outcome were the hands-on activities that gave the participants first-hand experience in dealing with IBP/ES&OP issues such as: different views of forecast, different interest of different department in the business and the advantages of establishing a single view of demand and supply.”
VP BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, ISCS